Kosmos-482, a failed Soviet Venus probe, re-entered Earth’s atmosphere in May, but tracking its exact descent proved elusive.

Imagery of Kosmos-482, an intended Venera spacecraft to visit the planet Venus, which was stuck in Earth orbit for 53 years. (Image credit: Ralf Vandebergh) Venera 8 pre-launch preparations.

Different computer models were used to predict the reentry of the 1970s-era Soviet Venus craft Kosmos-482. Why were they divergent, and how can we improve our debris-fall forecasts?