The probability of a US recession this year has plunged on Polymarket and Kalshi. Prediction gurus break down what that means ...

In order for the recession bet on Polymarket to pay out, resolving the market to “Yes,” the following win conditions must be met: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, as reported by the ...

Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data — but acknowledge they aren’t ...

The causal pathways by which tariffs could cause a recession seem dormant. Trade policy turmoil is the new normal, and may ...

Key characteristics of a recession include slides in gross domestic product growth, rising unemployment, decreased consumer ...

From a mild recession to a so-called hard landing, we sift through the wild array of recession predictions. June 10, 2025. contribute now. Public media funding. OPB and KMHD events.

Over 80% of CEOs foresee a recession in the next year. According to KPMG's latest CEO survey, 86% of top executives believe there will be a recession in the next 12 months. The good news? Almost ...

Like the gyrations in the stock market, economists have gone back and forth on recession predictions. A year or so ago there was a broad consensus among experts that there would be a recession in ...

This Recession-Predicting Tool Hasn't Been Wrong in 57 Years. Here's What It Says Happens Next for the U.S. Economy and Stocks. By Sean Williams – Dec 12, 2023 at 5:06AM ...

But during the Great Recession of 2007-09, gross domestic product fell 3.8%, 8.7 million jobs were wiped out and unemployment reached 10%, according to Labor Department figures and Wells Fargo.

If we assume that the FOMC is correct in predicting a mild recession for later this year, the implication of this data would be that the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 haven't yet seen their lows.