The probability of a US recession this year has plunged on Polymarket and Kalshi. Prediction gurus break down what that means ...

Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data — but acknowledge they aren’t ...

In order for the recession bet on Polymarket to pay out, resolving the market to “Yes,” the following win conditions must be met: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, as reported by the ...

The causal pathways by which tariffs could cause a recession seem dormant. Trade policy turmoil is the new normal, and may ...

Key characteristics of a recession include slides in gross domestic product growth, rising unemployment, decreased consumer ...

The U.S. economy has defied dire predictions so far this year. Many economists see growth slowing – and tariff-driven ...

Mind the ever-present risks: Of course, we should not get complacent. There will always be risks to worry about, such as U.S. political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, energy price volatility, and ...

Like the gyrations in the stock market, economists have gone back and forth on recession predictions. A year or so ago there was a broad consensus among experts that there would be a recession in ...

America’s economy is facing the highest chance of recession since the depths of the Covid crisis as Donald Trump’s tariffs ...

The recent correction in the stock market has yet to trigger a clear recession warning for the US economy, based on a model that uses S&P 500 drawdowns.

Wall Street firms lower recession predictions after U.S.-China trade deal Fed now expected to deliver gradual rate cuts starting later in the year Economists anticipate goods prices to rise due to ...