Officials at the Federal Reserve have adopted a wait-and-see approach to policy moves amid extreme uncertainty about the economic outlook.

Federal Reserve staff now view a recession as “almost as likely” as their baseline forecast, according to minutes from the central bank’s May meeting, released Wednesday, highlighting the challenges current trade policy poses for the bank.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic explained it would take time for the central bank to fully understand the economic effects of the White House’s new tariff policy. Because of that prolonged process, he only saw room for one interest rate cut this year.